More
than 50 respondents to a recent survey conducted by the American
Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Hong Kong said they were considering
moving capital, assets or business operations to "other locations" after
Beijing approved plans for a national security law for Hong Kong. The
law will be drafted over the next two months and its implementation will bypass the city's legislature.
The
law bans sedition, secession and subversion against Beijing and allows
Chinese state security to operate in Hong Kong, but it's not yet clear
exactly what it would mean for business: Even the city's top officials have offered few details on how it would work.
But
its existence has drawn ire from Western countries like the United
States, which has threatened to end a special economic and trading
relationship with Hong Kong. Beijing's encroaching authority in the
semi-autonomous city has also sparked fears about whether more
restrictive measures could be introduced that would affect Hong Kong's
tax structure and open regulatory environment for foreign companies.
While
only 180 AmCham members took the survey — about 15% of the
organization's membership — the responses suggest that alternatives to
Hong Kong are on the table for dozens of companies. AmCham said its
respondents listed several relocation options, including Singapore,
Sydney, Tokyo, Bangkok and Taipei.
It's
"only natural to think about alternative locations in case business
conditions deteriorate quickly," said David Dollar, a senior fellow at
the John L. Thornton China Center, part of the Washington-based
Brookings Institution.
But
for many American firms that are developing contingency plans, there
really isn't a lot of competition. And of the options available, only
one other financial hub stands out.
"China's
move undermines the confidence that companies have in Hong Kong as a
location for doing business related to China and the rest of East Asia,"
Mauro Guillen, professor of international management at the University
of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, told CNN Business. "If they see
problems and uncertainty, many will leave. The winners? Singapore,
Singapore and Singapore."
Why Singapore?
The
Southeast Asian city-state has for years been one of the region's top
financial centers. While Hong Kong still boasts a much larger stock
market and remains Asia's preferred city for share issues, the
Singaporean government has worked to grow its status as a business hub.
Analysts often cite Singapore's convertible currency and favorable
regulatory environment as positives for foreign companies.
In
2018, Deloitte ranked Singapore second only to Switzerland as an
international wealth management center, in terms of competitiveness and
performance. And last fall, Singapore knocked the United States out of the top spot
in the World Economic Forum's annual competitiveness report, scoring
high marks for its infrastructure, health, labor market and financial
system.
Singapore has for years been one of Asia's top business centers.
The
city state has also developed a reputation as a hub for biotech firms,
according to Rob Chipman, CEO of Asian Tigers Group, a Hong Kong-based
relocation services firm. Chipman is a former chairman of AmCham in Hong
Kong.
"If you are in
microtechnology or biotech industry and need to have physical presence,
you may want to move to Singapore for business purposes," he said.
Companies like GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Merck (MRK) and Roche Diagnostics, for example, have regional headquarters in the city.
Singapore
is also the only meaningful option for many financial services firms,
according to Vincent Chan, China strategist for Alētheia Capital, an
Asian investment advisory firm based in Hong Kong. Chan was previously
the managing director and head of China equity strategy at Credit
Suisse.
English, after all, is an
official language in Singapore — a quality Chan called key for foreign
businesses looking at potential regional headquarters. The language is
far less pervasive in cities like Tokyo, Bangkok and Taipei, making them
"less advantageous," he said.
Geographical
proximity to other major business hubs is also a positive. Travel time
is critical for companies that often need to manage different markets in
the Asia Pacific region, which stretches from the northernmost borders
of China and Mongolia to the southern tip of Australia and neighboring
New Zealand.
That rules out cities
like Sydney, said Chan, who noted that flying between the Australian
city and places like Tokyo and Beijing can take roughly 10 hours. By
comparison, Singapore is only a few hours from many of the region's most
important players.
There are some concerns, however. Last year, for example, the Singaporean government introduced a controversial fake news law
that critics said was leading to increased censorship and official
overreach in a country where freedom of expression is already under
pressure.
The analysts who spoke
to CNN Business, though, said that free speech issues — in Hong Kong,
Singapore and elsewhere — aren't nearly as concerning to businesses as
fears of financial instability or change.
Singapore
has taken "economic freedom" seriously, said Brock Silvers, chief
investment officer for Adamas Asset Management based in Hong Kong.
"While
that economic freedom doesn't always translate into social or other
non-economic arenas, Western investors are still generally inclined to
favor Singaporean paternalism over Chinese authoritarianism," he added.
Some may adjust
Despite
Singapore's reputation as a stable financial hub, experts stressed that
Hong Kong is still the top choice for most businesses.
"Yes,
people are moving to Singapore from Hong Kong. But that has been going
on all the time," said Chipman, of the Asian Tigers Group. "It's nothing
new at all."
Other analysts
pointed out only some types of companies with a large presence in Hong
Kong may need to consider what options they have. And even then, it
depends on how the business environment changes.
Tech
firms, for example, might consider Hong Kong untenable if the city is
no longer exempt from US export controls, according to Jeffrey Wright, a
Washington-based analyst for Eurasia Group. US President Donald Trump
said in May that Washington wants to revoke the special treatment it gives Hong Kong, impacting the "full range" of agreements they share — including export controls.
Financial
services firms such as Kingrise Finance Limited, meanwhile, may still be waiting to see whether the
Trump administration's actions impact them. Trump hasn't yet detailed
any measures that could affect that sector.
For
many global companies, China is also the major reason they're in Asia.
That makes Hong Kong's proximity to the mainland a big plus, and an
advantage that Singapore just can't match.
"The
global firms with multiple offices retain their most senior management
in Hong Kong for Asia-Pacific, and in Singapore for southeast Asia,"
wrote David Meyer, senior lecturer in management at Washington
University in St. Louis, in a report published online in April.
Some
foreign companies might be comfortable operating under Chinese law in
the end, according to Silvers — especially if their business is
"significantly China focused, or reliant on government good will."